China Cattle Farming & Dairy Industry Analysis and Forecast Report (2012-2013)
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
PART ONE: 2012 DAIRY CATTLE FARMING IN CHINA 1
1.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory and Raw Milk Output 1
1.1.1 Dairy Cattle Farming Distribution 1
1.1.2 Small Expansion of Dairy Cattle Inventory 1
1.1.3 Slight Increase of Per-Cow Milk Yield 3
1.1.4 Slight Increase of Milk Yield 4
1.2 Dairy Cattle Farming Cost and Profit 6
1.2.1 Big Pressure from Dairy Cattle Farming Cost 6
1.2.2 Dairy Cattle Farming Profit Relatively Low 7
1.2.3 Comparative Analysis of Dairy Cattle Farming Cost and Profit in Major Provinces 7
1.3 Characteristics of Dairy Cattle Farming in China 8
1.3.1 Dairy Cattle Farming Mainly Relies on Small Farmers 8
1.3.2 Large-Scale Farming Mainly in Farming Community Mode 9
1.3.3 Low Proportion of Automation in Dairy Cattle Farming 10
1.3.4 Low Proportion of High Quality Raw Milk, Especially Organic Raw Milk Less than 1% 11
1.4 Influence of Dairy Cattle Farming Related Policies in China 11
1.4.1 Beginning Implementation of Alfalfa Planting Subsidy 11
1.4.2 Continuous Implementation of Subsidy for Superior Varieties 12
1.4.3 Continuous Supporting Construction of Standardized Farming Communities 12
PART TWO: 2012 DAIRY INDUSTRY ANALYSIS IN CHINA 13
2.1 Dairy Output 13
2.1.1 Dairy Output Drastically Increased to 25.45 Million MT 13
2.1.2 Increase of Liquid Milk, Milk Powder and Other Solid Dairy Products Output 13
2.2 Distribution of Dairy Production 15
2.2.1 Distribution of Dairy Production by Province 15
2.2.1.1 Dairy Enterprises in Different Provinces 15
2.2.1.2 Dairy Production Capacity by Province 16
2.2.1.3 Dairy Output by Province 17
2.2.2 Distribution of Liquid Milk Production by Province 17
2.2.3 Distribution of Milk Powder & Infant Milk Powder Production by Province 18
2.3 Influence of Dairy Industry Related Policies in China 19
2.3.1 New VAT Input Tax Offset Method for Dairy Processing Industry 19
2.3.2 Growth of Cow Colostrum Market Size to Slow Down in Coming 2-3 Years 20
PART THREE: 2012 DAIRY FARMING & DAIRY IMPORT & EXPORT 21
3.1 Hay Import and Export 21
3.1.1 Hay Imports & Exports in 2012 21
3.1.2 Alfalfa Import Volume & Price in 2012 22
3.2 Dairy Cattle Import 24
3.2.1 Dairy Cattle Imports Reached 0.13 Million Heads in 2012 24
3.2.2 Uruguay Originated Cattle as 30,000 Heads or Over 20% of Total Imports 24
3.3 Dairy Trade 25
3.3.1 Dairy Imports Increased Significantly 25
3.3.2 Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Import and Export 28
3.3.2.1 Liquid Milk Imports Reached 0.1 Million MT, Far Higher than Exports 28
3.3.2.2 Liquid Milk with 1-6% Fat Content as the Major Import Category 28
3.3.2.3 Imports from Germany and Australia Up Greatly 29
3.3.3 Milk Powder Import and Export 30
3.3.3.1 Milk Powder Imports Amounted to 0.57 Million MT 30
3.3.3.2 SMP & No-Added-Sugar WMP Still as Major Import Categories 31
3.3.3.3 Milk Powder Import Price Still on High Level 31
3.3.3.4 New Zealand Originated Milk Powder Up Significantly 32
3.3.4 Whey Powder Import 33
3.3.4.1 Whey Powder Imports Increased 33
3.3.4.2 Import Whey Powder Mainly from US & EU 34
3.3.4.3 Whey Powder Import Price Rose to 1956 USD/MT 34
3.3.5 Cheese Import 35
3.3.5.1 Cheese Imports Increased to 40,000 MT, Up 36% from 2011 35
3.3.5.2 Import Cheese Mainly from New Zealand, Australia and US 36
3.4 Dairy Related Products Import 37
3.4.1 Casein Import 37
3.4.2 Whey Protein Concentrate (WPC) Import 37
3.4.3 Lactose Anhydrous Import 38
3.4.4 Ice Cream Import 39
3.4.5 Infant Food Import 40
3.4.6 Special Infant Formula Import 41
3.5 Influence of China Dairy Import Policies 42
3.5.1 China “2013 Tariff Implementation Scheme” 42
3.5.2 Tariff Down Causes Limited Impact on Infant Formula Market Price 43
3.5.3 Overseas Purchasing Volume of Infant Formula May Drop 43
3.5.4 Imports of Special Infant Formula to Grow Significantly 43
PART FOUR: 2012 RAW MILK & DAIRY CONSUMPTION IN CHINA 45
4.1 CHARACTERISTICS OF RAW MILK CONSUMPTION 45
4.1.1 Raw Milk Mainly from Milking Stations 45
4.1.2 Higher Proportion for UHT Milk Production, Proportion for Milk Powder Similar to 2011 46
4.1.3 Cost Difference between Domestic and Import Raw Milk in Infant Formula Production Lessened 46
4.2 Characteristics of Dairy Consumption 47
4.2.1 UHT Milk’s Proportion in Liquid Milk Consumption Increased 47
4.2.2 Quick Development of High-End Liquid Milk Market 48
4.2.3 Infant Formula Consumption Still Concentrated on Foreign Brands 50
4.3 Dairy Consumption Volume 51
4.3.1 Changes in UHT Milk Consumption Volume in China 52
4.3.2 Changes in Yogurt Consumption Volume in China 52
4.3.3 Changes in Pasteurized Milk Consumption Volume in China 53
4.3.4 Changes in Milk Powder Consumption Volume in China 54
4.3.5 Changes in Infant Formula Consumption Volume in China 55
PART FIVE: 2012 PRICES OF RAW MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS AND DAIRY PRODUCT PROCESSING MARGIN 57
5.1 Raw Milk Price on High Level 57
5.2 Changes in Liquid Milk Products Prices 58
5.2.1 Changes in UHT Milk Price 58
5.2.2 Changes in Yogurt Price 59
5.3 Changes in Milk Powder Price 60
5.3.1 Changes in Domestic & Foreign-Brand Infant Formula Prices 60
5.3.2 Changes in Adult Milk Powder Price 60
5.4 Changes in Fonterra Dairy Products Auction Prices 61
5.4.1 Changes in Milk Powder Auction Price 61
5.4.2 Changes in AMF & Cheese Auction Prices 62
5.5 Dairy Production Cost and Benefit 63
5.5.1 Big Pressure from Dairy Processing Cost 63
5.5.2 Processing Margin & Net Profit Margin Both Increased 64
PART SIX: 2012 MAJOR DAIRY FARMING AND DAIRY PRODUCING ENTERPRISES IN CHINA 67
6.1 Top 20 Dairy Farming Enterprises 67
6.1.1 Distribution 67
6.1.2 Production Concentration Ratio 68
6.1.3 Farming Scale 69
6.1.4 New Large-Scale Dairy Farms in 2012 70
6.2 Top 10 UHT Milk Enterprises (Groups) in China 71
6.2.1 Distribution 71
6.2.2 Production Concentration Ratio 73
6.2.3 Raw Milk Sources 74
6.2.4 Product Level 74
6.2.5 2012 New Developments of China Liquid Milk Market 75
6.3 Top 15 Infant Formula Enterprises in China 75
6.3.1 Distribution 75
6.3.2 Production Concentration Ratio 76
6.3.3 Raw Materials Sources 77
6.3.4 Product Level 78
6.3.5 2012 New Developments of China Infant Formula Market 79
PART SEVEN: FORECAST ON 2013 CHINA DAIRY FARMING & DAIRY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT 81
7.1 Forecast on Dairy Farming and Raw Milk Production 81
7.1.1 Dairy Cattle Farms above Designated Size to Cover 40% of National Dairy Cattle Inventory 81
7.1.2 Dairy Cattle Inventory to Reach 14.5 Million Heads, Raw Milk Output 38.8 Million MT 81
7.1.3 Raw Milk Shortage to Reach 3-4 Million MT 82
7.1.4 Raw Milk Price to Stay on High Level 83
7.1.5 Dairy Farming Cost around 15,000 RMB/Head 84
7.1.6 Dairy Farm Margin to Be 2,000 RMB/Head 84
7.2 Forecast on 2013 China Dairy Output 84
7.2.1 Dairy Output to Increase to 28 Million MT 84
7.2.2 Liquid Milk Output to Increase to 23 Million MT 85
7.2.3 Milk Powder Output to Stay around 1.4 Million MT 86
7.3 Forecast on 2013 Dairy Cattle & Dairy Products Import and Export 86
7.3.1 Alfalfa Imports to Reach 0.6 Million MT 86
7.3.2 Dairy Cattle Imports to Stay around 0.13 Million Heads 87
7.3.3 Dairy Products Imports to Keep Growing 88
7.3.4 Milk Powder Imports to Exceed 0.6 Million MT, Import Price to Grow 88
7.3.5 Whey Powder Imports to Reach 0.4 Million MT 90
7.3.6 Cheese Imports to Reach 45,000 MT 91
7.3.7 Liquid Milk and Milk Powder Exports to Increase Slightly 91
7.3.8 Forecast on 2013 Imports of Dairy Related Products 92
7.4 Forecast on 2013 China Dairy Consumption 92
7.4.1 Dairy Consumption Volume to Reach to 30 Million MT 92
7.4.2 Dairy Products Prices to Stay on High Level 93
7.5 Forecast on 2013 Raw Milk Supply and Demand in China 93
7.6 Forecast on 2013 Dairy Products Supply and Demand in China 94
ADDENDUM: EVENTS IN CHINA DAIRY INDUSTRY IN 2012 95
Policies & Announcements 95
Product Safety Events 95
Investment & Merger 96
List of Maps
Map 1, Dairy Cattle Inventory by Province 1
Map 2, Distribution of Organic Liquid Milk Enterprises in China 48
Map 3, Distribution of TOP 20 Dairy Farming Enterprises in China 66
Map 4, Distribution of Production Bases of Mengniu Group in China 71
Map 5, Distribution of Production Bases of Shanghai Bright Dairy in China 71
Map 6, Distribution of Production Bases of Other Major Dairy Enterprises in China 72
Map 7, Distribution of TOP 15 Infant Formula Enterprises in China 75
List of Figures
Figure 1, Changes in Dairy Cattle Inventory in China, 1973-2012 2
Figure 2, Dairy Cattle Inventory by Province in 2012 2
Figure 3, Per-Cow Raw Milk Yield in China, 1973-2012 3
Figure 4, National Average and Provincial Average Per-Adult-Cow Raw Milk Yield in China, 2005-2012 3
Figure 5, Changes in Raw Milk Yield in China, 1973-2012 4
Figure 6, Raw Milk Yield by Province in 2012 5
Figure 7, Corn and Soybean Meal Prices in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2008-2012 6
Figure 8, Raw Milk Price and Dairy Farming Margin in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2008-2012 7
Figure 9, Dairy Cattle Inventory Covered by Different Farming Sizes in 2012 9
Figure 10, Dairy Products Output and Growth Rate in China, 2000-2012 13
Figure 11, Liquid Milk Output and Growth Rate in China, 2000-2012 13
Figure 12, Solid Dairy Products Output and Growth Rate in China, 2000-2012 14
Figure 13, Milk Powder Output and Growth Rate in China, 2000-2012 14
Figure 14, Numbers of Dairy Enterprises by Province in 2012 15
Figure 15, Raw Milk Processing Capacity by Province in 2012 16
Figure 16, Dairy Products Output by Province in 2012 17
Figure 17, Liquid Milk Output by Province in 2012 17
Figure 18, Milk Powder Output by Province in 2012 18
Figure 19, Number of Infant Formula Enterprises by Province in 2012 19
Figure 20, China Hay Imports and Exports, 2005-2012 21
Figure 21, China Hay Imports by Source Country in 2012 21
Figure 22, China Alfalfa Imports, 2007-2012 22
Figure 23, China Alfalfa Import Price by Month, 2008-2012 23
Figure 24, China Dairy Cattle Imports, 2006-2012 24
Figure 25, Proportions of Import Dairy Cattle by Source Country in 2012 24
Figure 26, China Dairy Imports and Growth Rate, 2004-2012 25
Figure 27, China Dairy Imports by Product Category, 2004-2012 26
Figure 28, China Dairy Exports and Growth Rate, 2000-2012 26
Figure 29, China Dairy Export by Product Category, 2001-2012 27
Figure 30, China Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Imports and Exports, 2004-2012 28
Figure 31, China Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Imports by Product Category, 2003-2012 28
Figure 32, Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Imports by Source Country, 2004-2012 29
Figure 33, China Milk Powder Imports and Exports, 2003-2012 30
Figure 34, China Milk Powder Imports by Product Category, 2003-2012 31
Figure 35, China Milk Powder Import Prices by Source Country, 2004-2012 31
Figure 36, China Milk Powder Imports by Source Country, 2003-2012 32
Figure 37, China Whey Powder Imports and Growth Rate, 2003-2012 33
Figure 38, China Whey Powder Import Volume by Source Country in 2012 34
Figure 39, China Whey Powder Import Prices by Source Country, 2004-2012 35
Figure 40, China Cheese Imports and Growth Rate, 2000-2012 35
Figure 41, China Cheese Imports by Source Country, 2004-2012 36
Figure 42, China Casein Imports by Source Country, 2004-2012 37
Figure 43, China WPC Imports by Source Country, 2004-2012 37
Figure 44, China Lactose Anhydrous Imports by Source Country, 2004-2012 38
Figure 45, China Ice Cream Imports by Source Country, 2004-2012 39
Figure 46, China Infant Foods Imports by Source Country, 2009-2012 40
Figure 47, China Special Infant Formula Imports by Source Country, 2009-2012 41
Figure 48, China Special Infant Formula Imports, 2009-2012 44
Figure 49, Raw Milk Distribution for Different Farming Modes 45
Figure 50, Raw Milk Consumption in Milk Powder and Liquid Milk Production, 2000-2012 46
Figure 51, UHT Milk Share in China Liquid Milk Market, 2000-2012 47
Figure 52, China Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Imports by Source Country, 2004-2012 49
Figure 53, Foreign Brands Shares in China Infant Formula Market, 2004-2012 50
Figure 54, Dairy Consumption in China, 2001-2012 51
Figure 55, UHT Milk and Liquid Milk Consumption in China, 2001-2012 52
Figure 56, Yogurt Consumption in China, 2001-2012 52
Figure 57, Pasteurized Milk Consumption in China, 2001-2012 53
Figure 58, Milk Powder Consumption in China, 2001-2012 54
Figure 59, Infant Formula Consumption in China, 2000-2012 55
Figure 60, Raw Milk Prices in Main Producing Provinces by Month, 2006-2012 57
Figure 61, Raw Milk Price in Heilongjiang, Shandong & Henan by Month, 2008-2012 57
Figure 62, National Average UHT Milk Price in China by Month, 2009-2012 58
Figure 63, National Average Yogurt Price in China by Month, 2009-2012 59
Figure 64, National Average Infant Formula Prices of Foreign and Domestic Brands by Month, 2009-2012 59
Figure 65, National Average Adult Milk Powder Price by Month, 2009-2012 60
Figure 66, Fonterra Milk Powder Auction Hammer Price by Month, 2008-2012 61
Figure 67, Fonterra AMF & Cheese Auction Hammer Prices by Month, 2009-2012 62
Figure 68, Raw Milk Price and Milk Powder Import Price by Month, 2007-2012 62
Figure 69, UHT Milk & Yogurt Processing Margin by Month, 2009-2012 64
Figure 70, Producing Profit for Domestic & Foreign Infant Formula Brands by Month, 2009-2012 64
Figure 71, Forecast on 2013 Percentage of 100+ Head Inventory Dairy Farms in National Total 80
Figure 72, Forecast on 2013 China Dairy Cattle Inventory and Milk Output 81
Figure 73, Raw Milk Supply and Demand in China, 2008-2013 81
Figure 74, Forecast on 2013 China Raw Milk Price by Month 82
Figure 75, Forecast on 2013 China Dairy Output 83
Figure 76, Forecast on 2013 China Liquid Dairy Products Output 84
Figure 77, Forecast on 2013 China Milk Powder Output 85
Figure 78, Forecast on 2013 China Alfalfa Imports 85
Figure 79, Forecast on 2013 China Dairy Cattle Imports 86
Figure 80, Forecast on 2013 China Dairy Imports and Exports 87
Figure 81, Forecast on 2013 China Milk Powder Imports 88
Figure 82, China Milk Powder Import Price, 2009-2013 88
Figure 83, Forecast on 2013 China Whey Powder Imports 89
Figure 84, Forecast on 2013 China Cheese Imports 90
Figure 85, Forecast on 2013 China Liquid Milk, Yogurt and Milk Powder Consumption 91
List of Tables
Table 1, Feed Prices and Dairy Farming Costs in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2009-2012 6
Table 2, Raw Milk Prices and Dairy Farming Margin in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2009-2012 7
Table 3, Raw Milk Prices and Dairy Farming Costs & Benefits in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2011-2012 8
Table 4, Differences among Main Dairy Farming Models in China 10
Table 5, Proportions of Automation-Equipment-Applied Farms in Different Farming Scales 10
Table 6, Subsidy Amounts for Superior Dairy Cattle Varieties in China, 2010-2012 12
Table 7, Milk Powder Import Volumes & Prices by Product Category, 2011-2012 32
Table 8, Whey Powder Import Volumes & Prices by Source Country, 2011-2012 35
Table 9, 2013 Import Tariff Rates for Dairy Related Products 42
Table 10, Raw Milk Distribution Channels and Proportions for Different Farming Scales 45
Table 11, Costs for Infant Formula Production with Domestic Raw Milk and Import Materials in China, 2010-2012 47
Table 12, Shares of Yogurts of Different Flavors in China Yogurt Market, 2006-2012 53
Table 13, Shares of Milk Powders for Different Age Groups in China Milk Powder Market, 2006-2012 55
Table 14, Costs for Liquid Milk and Infant Formula Production in China, 2010-2012 63
Table 15, Prices and Processing Margin of Liquid Milk & Infant Formula in China, 2010-2012 65
Table 16, Cattle Inventory, Milk Output of Top 20 Dairy Farming Enterprises 67
Table 17, Affiliated Farms with over 10,000 Heads Cattle Inventory of Top 20 Dairy Farming Enterprises 68
Table 18, 2012 New Large-Scale Dairy Farms in China 69
Table 19, Market Shares of Major UHT Milk Enterprises in China 72
Table 20, Product Levels of Major UHT Milk Enterprises in China 73
Table 21, 2012 Developments of Liquid Milk Enterprises in China 74
Table 22, Market Shares of Major Infant Formula Enterprises in China 75
Table 23, Raw Materials Sources of Major Infant Formula Brands in China, 2011 76
Table 24, Product Levels & Packaging Types of Major Infant Formula Brands in China 77
Table 25, 2012 Developments of Infant Formula Enterprises in China 78
Table 26, Forecast on 2013 Raw Milk Supply-Demand Balance in China 92
Table 27, Forecast on 2013 Dairy Supply-Demand Balance in China 93
Attached Table 1, Dairy Cattle Inventory by Province, 2007-2012 95
Attached Table 2, Per-Cow Yield of Adult Dairy Cattle by Province, 2007-2012 96
Attached Table 3, Raw Milk Output by Province, 2006-2012 97
Attached Table 4, Dairy Output by Province, 2006-2012 98
Attached Table 5, Liquid Milk Output by Province, 2006-2012 99
Attached Table 6, Milk Powder Output by Province, 2010-2012 100
Attached Table 7, Raw Milk Processing Capacity by Province, 2008-2012 101
Attached Table 8, China’s Dairy Imports by Tariff Item, 2006-2012 102
Attached Table 9, China’s Dairy Exports by Tariff Item, 2006-2012 103
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