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The Road to 4G: Will LTE, UMB and WiMAX Just Be Stops Along the Way?

完成日期:2007年08月
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Report's Content
Table of Contents
  Executive Summary
  Introduction
  What is 4G?
    ITU Definition
      OFDMA
    Informal Uses of “4G” Terminology
    NGMN alliance
  3G History and Overview
    1G Technologie
    2G Technologie
    3G Technologies
      The “Real” 3G Technologies
      802.16e Mobile WiMAX
  State of the Cellular and WiMAX Markets
    Cellular Forecasts
      Cellular Handset Forecasts: 2G/2.5G Technologies Dominate Market
      Cellular in Mobile PCs: Still Waiting for Volumes
    WiMAX Forecasts
  4G Alternatives
    LTE
    UMB
    802.16m WiMAX
  4G Technology Cheerleaders: The Big Three
    Ericsson
    Qualcomm
    Intel
  Vendor Landscape
    Equipment Vendors
      Alcatel-Lucent
      Nortel
      Samsung
    Semiconductor Vendors
      Marvell
      TI
    Carriers
      Sprint
  Market Drivers
  Glossary
  Methodology
  Related In-Stat Reports

List of Tables
  Table 1. Mobile WiMAX Profiles
  Table 2. Technologies Comparison: EV-DO vs. HSPA vs. 802.16e Mobile WiMAX
  Table 3. Cellular Handset Chipset Forecasts per Technology
  Table 4. Cellular Modem Chipset Unit Forecasts—for Mobile PCs (Units in Thousands)
  Table 5. 802.16e Mobile WiMAX Chipset Shipment Forecasts—by Form Factor (Units in Thousands)
  Table 6. Ericsson’s Expectation for Embedded 3G Cellular in Mobile PCs vs. In-Stat’s Forecast (Units in Thousands)
  Table 7. Embedded Wi-Fi Attach Rate in Mobile PCs
  Table 8. WiMAX Attach Rate in Mobile PCs—Trending to Wi-Fi’s Historical Attach Rate

List of Figures
  Figure 1. What is 4G?
  Figure 2. Cellular and WiMAX Technologies Timeline
  Figure 3. Cellular Handset Chipset Forecasts per Technology
  Figure 4. Cellular Modem Chipset Forecasts—for Mobile PCs (Units in Thousands)
  Figure 5. 802.16e Mobile WiMAX Chipset Shipment Forecasts—by Form Factor (Units in Thousands)
  Figure 6. Ericsson’s Expectation for Embedded 3G Cellular in Mobile PCs vs. In-Stat’s Forecast (Units in Thousands)
  Figure 7. Qualcomm’s View of 3G Cellular Ubiquitous Coverage vs. More Limited Coverage of OFMA-based Mobile Broadband Technologies
  Figure 8. Qualcomm’s Wireless WAN Technology Positioning
  Figure 9. Can Intel Make This Happen?: Wi-Fi Attach Rate to Mobile PCs versus WiMAX Attach Rate to Mobile PCs, Mirroring Wi-Fi Attach Rate
  Figure 10. Samsung’s Vision for 4G vs. Mobile WiMAX vs. HSDPA

Report's synopsis
  Companies are extremely uncomfortable talking about "4G" technologies per se, since the ITU has not defined 4G yet. Most companies believe that the characteristics of IMT-Advanced, as defined by the ITU, will represent a definition of 4G. Two expected requirements within IMT-Advanced are that technologies be OFDMA-based, and that they support 100Mbps for mobile applications. Long Term Evolution (LTE), Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB), and 802.16m WiMAX all fulfill these requirements, and are the primary 4G technology contenders.
  
  Each of the 4G technologies has a head cheerleader, with Intel supporting WiMAX, Ericsson touting LTE, and Qualcomm preferring UMB.
  
  LTE, UMB and 802.16m WiMAX are expected to be initially implemented in 2010; however, looking at the slow uptake rate of EV-DO and HSPA, it may be 2012 and beyond. In-Stat actually forecasts that GSM/GPRS and GSM/EDGE handsets will still make up the majority of cellular handsets in 2011, with EV-DO and HSPA handsets expected to overtake 2G technologies in 2012. This, perhaps, points to a slow build-out of 4G networks, in which operators will maintain their 3G networks for a long time, running these as complementary to their 4G networks.
  
  Initial implementations of LTE, UMB and 802.16m technologies may fall short of throughput and other expectations, with later enhancements to one or more of these technologies, or even some type of technology blend, actually bringing real 4G to the table.
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